Every pain avoided but in certain circumstances and owing to the claims of duty or the obligations of business it will frequently occur that pleasures have to be repudiated and annoyances accepted selection he rejects pleasures to secure.
As widely anticipated, the 16-17 September FOMC meeting ended with the Fed reducing its target rate by 25bp, while reasserting its independence. While the marked slowdown in payroll growth prompted the Fed to cut the policy rate for the first time in 2025, it reiterated that future decisions would remain data-dependent. In our view, the
Economic growth in emerging countries held up well in the first half of 2025. So far, US tariff measures have had little impact on global trade and therefore on their exports. Furthermore, domestic demand, another driver of growth in these countries, remains strong, in particular thanks to the support of domestic credit. Bank lending growth
ADVANCED ECONOMIES United StatesInflation rises, job creation revised downwards againInflation, as measured by the CPI, rose by+2.9% y/y in August (+0.2pp, +0.4% m/m). Core inflation was stable at +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y. The difference can be explained by the acceleration in energy and food inflation. The core component rose for goods (due to the
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Since the beginning of the year, China’s economic growth has proved to be more robust than expected. Exports have withstood US tariff attacks and household consumption has recovered thanks to government stimulus programs.However, large clouds are casting a shadow over the picture and are likely to slow growth in the second half of the year.
International tradeReciprocal tariffs soon to be heard by the Supreme Court. The Trump administration is challenging the Federal Court of Appeals’ ruling confirming the illegality of “reciprocal” tariffs and those related to opioids before the Supreme Court. The administration wants the case to be heard quickly, with hearings scheduled to begin in November. In addition
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The August Employment Situation featured weak payroll growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. The release confirmed the downside risks surrounding the US labour market. The FOMC is expected to lower the Fed Funds Target Range (-25 bps) for the first time in 2025 at its 16-17 September meeting. Sharp decline in nonfarm payrollsSource:
Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September remains largely unchanged from that at the end of July: namely, an economy that, overall, continues to withstand the double blow of US tariffs and uncertainty. Our current scenario expects an average annual growth of 1.6% in the United States in
International tradeReciprocal tariffs suspended pending Supreme Court ruling. A US Court of Appeals decision has upheld the Court of International trade’s ruling that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal. This applies to “reciprocal” tariffs and those related to opioids. Tariffs remain in effect until 14